The Electoral Vote Counter is starting to show a swing towards Bush despite the hoopla surrounding the Democratic Convention. The last time I checked, the count was more like 320-220 in Kerry's favor. Now a switch of just 11 votes to Bush's side creates a tie.

Also to note, in the "barely Bush states" there are none that Gore won in 2000 and only Florida was really close. In the "barely Kerry states" there are actually a few that Bush won in 2000 and some that he only lost by a fraction of a percent. I think that gives Bush much more of a cushion with the standard(?) convention bounce to come in September.