It is certainly a valid argument that the current wave of change in the Middle East is in certain ways quite dissimilar to the collapse of the Soviet empire in Eastern Europe. There's a lot more killing going on now and those in power are not slipping away quietly, as David Fromkin writes in A Wall of Faith and History in today's NY Times.

However, when the argument turns from pointing out the differences to "don't feel too good about yourselves, America", the argument always seems to rest on unrelenting pessimism or a sleight of verbal hand.

For example, Mr. Fromkin writes, "Nor are the forces on our side necessarily fighting for democracy, as they were in Berlin. The demonstrators in the streets in Beirut were not demanding democracy, but asking for independence - which is rather a different thing."

Democracy is indeed different than independence. However is his claim based on the fact that Lebanon today is considered a democracy of sorts and therefore isn't looking to change, or is it that he thinks that the Lebanese are looking towards a dictator or strongman to lead them? Both ideas seem preposterous to me as a Syrian-occupied Lebanon is no more a democracy than Iraq was or Iran is just because people are allowed to "vote" in rigged elections. And I haven't yet heard anyone claim that the "Cedar Revolution" will produce anything but a more open Western-style democracy which is certainly not a foreign concept to the Lebanese. I wonder if this guy had to place a bet on democracy or dictatorship in Lebanon, if he would put his money where his pen is.

I also like this statement - "So in 2005, along with the bad news - the continuing deadly insurgency in Iraq, Osama bin Laden remaining at large, terrorists regrouping from Syria to Pakistan - there are welcome surprises all across the Arab-speaking Middle East."

If this is the worst of the bad news, I'm OK with that. First of all, the "continuing" deadly insurgency is starting to fade away as evidenced by the precipitous drop in American casualties, and the NY Times very own "There Are Signs the Tide is Turning..."

You might as well say that New York is in terrible shape because of the "continued string of homicides in the five boroughs", ignoring the fact that there are only a third of the murders that were committed not so long ago.

As for Osama Bin Laden, as President Bush once said, "I don't see him leading any parades". Also, a recent poll has shown a sharp decline in support for Bin Laden in the most populous Muslim nation.

Finally, I WANT the terorrists to be "regrouping". It sure as hell beats "attacking", and regrouping is what armies do after they are defeated, lose ground, and retreat.

I think I'm going to send the author two free tickets to Disney's upcoming movie, Chicken Little.

Boy, I haven't written a long political post in along time - that felt good!