Let's do the math.

Polls are showing that twice as many African-Americans might vote for Bush this time around.

Black voters are crucial for Democrats, and the party has been seeking to galvanize them in record numbers this year. But the urgency, with just over a week left in a breathtakingly close race, is also driven by recent polls showing President Bush's support among African-Americans may be double the 8 percent he won in 2000.

Meanwhile, 5% more Jews might vote for Bush than in 2000.

In a national poll of Jewish voters released Tuesday (Sept. 21) by the American Jewish Committee, Kerry had 69 percent to Bush's 24 percent with 3 percent backing Ralph Nader. Bush received 19 percent of the Jewish vote in 2000, according to exit polls.

According to Gallup, at least back in July, Bush is gaining in the Hispanic community.

In the presidential contest, John Kerry enjoys a 17- to 19-point lead among Hispanics, though that is still significantly below former Vice President Al Gore's 27-point margin of victory among Hispanics in the 2000 election.

Fewer women (more than half the electorate) will be voting Democratic.

Democratic pollster Celinda Lake, whose most recent (ed. - article is from 9/23/04) bipartisan Battleground 2004 poll shows Kerry leading Bush among women by four percentage points....In the 2000 presidential cliffhanger, Al Gore had an 11-point edge over Bush among women

And since this is so important a voting bloc, a second source to confirm:

A Sept. 21 poll by Investor's Business Daily showed the gender gap narrowing. The poll showed Kerry leading Bush 44 percent to 40 percent among women

So if Bush is gaining with Blacks, Jews, Hispanics and Women, how is it that the national polls show the race as being so close?

After doing this research, I'm starting to convince myself that maybe this election won't be as close as everyone thinks.